News × Polymarket Gap Analysis — 2026-04-29
News × Polymarket Gap Analysis — 2026-04-29
Generated: 2026-04-29 UTC | Sources: NHK / Yahoo / BBC RSS snapshots, Polymarket Gamma API snapshot
Data Summary
| Source | Items | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket markets | 50 | Latest local snapshot (data/markets-2026-04-28.json) |
| NHK / Yahoo / BBC news | 50 | Latest local snapshot (data/news-2026-04-28.json) |
Flagged gaps (|gap| ≥ 10pp): 0
Notable timeframe split: 1（US×Iran peace deal: Apr 30 vs May 31）
Core Gap Focus (2026-04-29): US–Iran peace deal term structure
Market probabilities (snapshot-based)
| Market | Yes price | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026 | 1.1% | $0.78M |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026 | 29.0% | $1.38M |
Interpretation
This is not a simple optimism/pessimism split. It is a time-horizon pricing split:
- April 30 window is effectively priced as a near-zero, short-deadline outcome.
- May 31 keeps meaningful optionality for diplomatic progress over ~1 month.
Implied shape: near-term resolution unlikely, medium-term negotiated path still live.
News context alignment
Recent coverage (through 2026-04-28 snapshots) contains mixed signals:
- Iran-side proposal movement and US-side internal review signals.
- Concurrent skepticism and pressure-track language.
That mix is consistent with the market curve above:
- No immediate deal (Apr 30 ~1%)
- Non-trivial chance of later deal (May 31 ~29%)
No explicit single-number news-implied probability was published, so this is tracked as an editorially relevant term-structure signal rather than a strict |gap|≥10pp flag against a numeric news estimate.
Japan-facing implications (watchlist)
The US–Iran probability curve matters for domestic macro exposure via energy prices:
- Deal progress scenario → lower risk premium in crude/LNG.
- Stalled talks scenario → sustained geopolitical premium, keeping utility/transport cost pressure elevated.
Given prior-day reporting around energy sensitivity, this term-structure should remain a recurring monitoring item.
Published article linkage
articles/2026-04-29-may-iran-deal-gap.md
Sources
- Local market snapshot:
data/markets-2026-04-28.json - Local news snapshot:
data/news-2026-04-28.json - Polymarket event pages:
- NHK news portal: https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/
- The Guardian world section: https://www.theguardian.com/world