← 一覧に戻る
News × Polymarket Gap Analysis — 2026-04-26
News × Polymarket Gap Analysis — 2026-04-26
Generated: 2026-04-26 UTC | Sources: NHK Web (WebSearch), Polymarket (WebSearch)
- News items analyzed: 4
- Markets analyzed: 5
- Flagged gaps (|gap| ≥ 10pp): 1
🚩 Flagged Gaps
[国際] イラン外相 パキスタン首相らと会談 米は特使らの派遣取りやめ
- Market: US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30, 2026?
- Market: 66% | News-implied: 45% | Gap: −21pp
- Direction:
yes_overpriced(confidence: medium) - Volume: $8M+ (推定)
- Reasoning: Trump withdrew envoy Witkoff from Pakistan talks — a clear de-escalation signal. Markets still pricing 66% for a June deal despite the US pulling back from active negotiations. The news implies the probability should be closer to 45%.
- Polymarket · NHKニュース
All Items
[国際] イラン外相 パキスタン首相らと会談 米は特使らの派遣取りやめ (source)
Keywords: iran nuclear deal, iran us negotiations, iran pakistan talks
| Market | Market | Implied | Gap | Direction | Conf | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | 66% | 45% | −21pp 🚩 | yes_overpriced | medium | ~$8M |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | 4% | 4% | 0pp | no_clear_signal | low | — |
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?: Trump withdrew Witkoff from Islamabad; market at 66% likely overestimates deal probability given the US stepping back from active negotiations.
- US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?: Only 4 days remain; both news and market agree this is nearly impossible.
[国際] ゼレンスキー大統領 アゼルバイジャンと防衛協力で一致
Keywords: ukraine defense, ukraine ceasefire, zelensky azerbaijan
| Market | Market | Implied | Gap | Direction | Conf | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia × Ukraine ceasefire by June 30? | 8% | 6% | −2pp | yes_overpriced | low | — |
| Russia × Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | 26% | 23% | −3pp | yes_overpriced | low | ~$14.5M |
- Ceasefire by June 30?: Zelensky deepening defense partnerships signals continued war posture; marginal downward pressure on ceasefire probability, but gap is below flag threshold.
- Ceasefire by end of 2026?: Longer horizon absorbs the news; gap small.
[経済] イラン情勢受けた節約の呼びかけ "規制的手法は考えず" 経産相 (source)
Keywords: iran oil supply, japan energy, oil price spike
| Market | Market | Implied | Gap | Direction | Conf | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of Japan Decision in April? | 90% no change | 90% | 0pp | no_clear_signal | low | — |
- BOJ April?: Energy conservation advisory is a domestic response to Iran tensions, not a BOJ policy signal. No gap.
[社会] 男子マラソン初の2時間切り ケニア選手が世界新記録
Keywords: marathon world record, athletics, kenya running
No matching active markets on Polymarket.